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Story Hinckley/The Christian Science Monitor

Republican gubernatorial applicant Glenn Youngkin speaks to a army at Burke Volunteer Blaze and Rescue Department, Oct. 19, 2021. The assemblage was one of Mr. Youngkin’s abounding aimed anon at parents advanced of the Nov. 2 election.

Burke, Va.

Lisa Andrews can recite accurately the now-infamous agitation acknowledgment fabricated by Democrat and above Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe. And it’s why she’s out so backward on a academy night. 

“‘I don’t anticipate parents should be cogent schools what they should teach,’” quotes the Fairfax mother, at an accident for GOP applicant Glenn Youngkin with her adolescent sons Austin and Aidan. 

She’s not the alone mother who was angered by Mr. McAuliffe’s statement, fabricated in acknowledgment to a catechism about a bill he banned as governor. Known as the “Beloved bill,” it would accept accustomed parents to opt their accouchement out of sexually absolute account assignments, such as the Pulitzer Prize-winning archetypal by Toni Morrison. Admitting Mr. McAuliffe’s affirmation that his acknowledgment was taken out of context, it has appear to ascertain the final amplitude of this attack – abacus gasoline to an already afire blaze in the commonwealth over education.

Education is consistently an affair in governors’ races. And typically, it favors Democrats. But Virginia, like abounding states, is advancing off a communicable year credible by contentious, and in some cases alike violent, school lath meetings, in which parents became added balked about academy closures that abounding abhorrent on agents unions and their Democratic allies.

While all of Virginia’s 132 academy districts are aback to full-time, in-person learning, tensions accept connected to simmer over issues like vaccine requirements and affectation mandates. Additionally, abounding parents, decidedly in the analytical Northern Virginia suburbs, accept taken affair with what they see as abolitionist class changes about chase and identity, and a adequate of standards in the name of equity.

Story Hinckley/The Christian Science Monitor

Fairfax mother Lisa Andrews, with sons Austin (left) and Aidan, says she about doesn’t pay absorption to politics. But afterwards all the problems apropos to apprenticeship over the accomplished year, she’s become invested in the Virginia governor’s race, accessory a assemblage for GOP applicant Glenn Youngkin in Burke, Oct. 19, 2021.

Mr. Youngkin, a above clandestine disinterestedness CEO and first-time politician, has fabricated apprenticeship a amount focus of his campaign. He’s captivated a alternation of “Parents Matter” rallies beyond the state, able to “restore Virginia’s bookish excellence” and ban “critical chase theory” in schools. His attack has been blanketing the airwaves with ads on education, including one in which he promises to access the apprenticeship account and abecedary pay. 

It appears to be working. In a accompaniment Joe Biden won aloof one year ago by 10 allotment points, acclamation now advance a awful aggressive chase – with Mr. McAuliffe accident cogent arena in contempo weeks, including a double-digit bead amid women. 

If Mr. Youngkin wins tomorrow, Republicans will about absolutely see this chase as a playbook for the 2022 midterm elections: a arrangement for how to win aback abstinent suburbanites who had confused abroad from the affair beneath above Admiral Donald Trump. 

More broadly, the action over apprenticeship in Virginia credibility to a amount catechism arising in abounding states and localities: Aloof how abundant ascribe should parents accept into their children’s government-funded education? Afterwards watching academy disentangle in absolute time over Zoom aftermost year, abounding parents activate they didn’t consistently accede with what they were seeing – galvanizing ahead non-voting mothers like Ms. Andrews to get added involved. 

“Everything activity on with the schools is authoritative me area in on this race,” says Ms. Andrews. “To moms, your children’s apprenticeship is the best important thing.” 

Like “soccer moms” of the 1990s, or “security moms” of the 2000s, this year’s “school lath moms” accept already been dubbed a cardinal beat vote. 

“These are absolute women who alive in the suburbs and are anxious about what’s activity on in their kids’ schools,” says Jennifer Lawless, an able on women and backroom at the University of Virginia. “They were the ones amenable for accouterment homeschooling for a year, they are implementing COVID protocols in their home, and in abounding places, they accept they apperceive bigger than the government what their kids should be learning.”

College-educated women, abounding of them burghal mothers, confused clearly abroad from the Republican Affair over the accomplished bristles years, abundantly because of their abhorrence for above Admiral Trump. The trend was abnormally arresting in Virginia, area accustomed Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam won by 9 allotment credibility in 2017, acknowledgment to strong abutment in the flush Northern Virginia suburbs.  

But Mr. Trump is no best centermost stage. And those burghal voters who confused to the Democrats are hardly a abiding affair for the affair activity forward, says Patrick Murray, administrator of Monmouth University Polling Institute. “Because they haven’t been voting Democratic for all that long, you can still move them.” 

Historically, Virginia’s governor’s chase – which occurs every four years amid presidential and aldermanic midterm elections – has generally swung adjoin the affair that holds the White House. Mr. McAuliffe’s acclamation in 2013, afterward Admiral Barack Obama’s reelection to a additional term, was an abnormality in that regard.

To be sure, best voters accept their applicant based absolutely on affair identification. And accustomed Admiral Biden’s accessible achievement aftermost year, and Virginia’s added dejected hue in contempo acclamation cycles, Professor Lawless says she charcoal a “little bit skeptical” about the achievability of a Youngkin victory, admitting his credible drive in the polls. 

Still, the Republicans’ focus on apprenticeship has been smart, she adds. The basal point Mr. Youngkin is authoritative fits with the beyond Republican bulletin that parents, not the government, should accept the ultimate say in decisions that appulse their families’ lives. 

A Washington Post-Schar Academy poll appear backward aftermost anniversary activate Mr. McAuliffe arch amid acceptable voters by a distinct point, with apprenticeship now baronial amid voters’ top three concerns. Likewise, a Monmouth University poll from backward October not alone had Mr. McAuliffe and Mr. Youngkin angry amid registered voters, but activate apprenticeship and schools had replaced COVID-19 as voters’ additional best important affair abaft the abridgement – with Mr. Youngkin trusted hardly added to handle it. Notably, Mr. McAuliffe’s 14-point advance with changeable voters in September had diminished to aloof four points, with Mr. McAuliffe’s advance on the affair of apprenticeship accurately shrinking 10 credibility amid women. 

Steve Helber/AP

Democratic gubernatorial applicant and above Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe reacts to the army at a assemblage in Richmond, Oct. 31, 2021.

At a assemblage for Mr. McAuliffe in Arlington, supporters of the above Democratic National Committee armchair and longtime Clinton acquaintance account a host of added apropos – such as aborticide and the communicable – influencing their decision.

“If Youngkin gets in, I’m aflutter that Virginia could go the way of Texas on aborticide or Florida on COVID,” says Erica Clayton, who’s cat-and-mouse to access the assemblage with her two children. 

“I accept two daughters, so it’s important to me that they accept the aforementioned choices that my bearing was afforded [on abortion], if not more,” says Ryann Morales, a midwife from Alexandria who is additionally accessory the accident with her children. 

For many, the achievability of addition presidential run by Mr. Trump additionally charcoal a atypical acumen to vote Democratic.

“I aloof don’t appetite Trump to accretion any absorption anywhere,” says Rebecca Henry, a mother from Springfield. “He needs to abide to lose everywhere.” 

Mr. McAuliffe has approved adamantine to tie Mr. Youngkin to the above president, cogent supporters over the weekend: “Trump wants to win actuality so he can advertise for admiral for 2024.” Mr. Trump himself seemed to answer that point on Monday, arising a account agitation letters that he and Mr. Youngkin were “at odds,” and insisting “we get forth able-bodied calm and acerb accept in abounding of the aforementioned policies.”

The McAuliffe attack has additionally belatedly approved to about-face the apprenticeship affair aback to its advantage. At a assemblage aftermost anniversary with Admiral Biden, copies of “Beloved” were broadcast to some associates of the columnist with warnings about a governor who was accommodating to ban books. And a slate of Democratic surrogates again emphasized Mr. McAuliffe’s educational achievements during his appellation in office.

But it ability be too little too late.

Some of Mr. Youngkin’s success appropriately far may be specific to him. The above Carlyle Group controlling has approved to airing a accomplished band in his efforts to address to both pro-Trump conservatives and anti-Trump moderates – a assignment that has balked abounding added GOP candidates. He has accustomed the above president’s endorsement, but has additionally mostly captivated him at arm’s length, never advancement in being with him. Aftermost month, afterwards Trump supporters at a “Take Aback Virginia” assemblage apprenticed adherence to a banderole allegedly agitated at the Jan. 6 anarchism at the U.S. Capitol, Mr. Youngkin – who did not appear the accident – issued a account calling it “weird and wrong.” 

Many GOP strategists see Mr. Youngkin as mapping out a aisle for Republicans to ride the apprenticeship ability wars all the way aback to ascendancy of the U.S. House and Senate, and possibly alike the White House. If the affair can win aback a allocation of the burghal vote it absent during the Trump years, while application or alike growing its authority on banal voters, it would accomplish for a able balloter coalition. 

“This is basically the affliction for what is activity to appear in 2022,” says John Fredericks, administrator of Mr. Trump’s Virginia attack in 2016 and 2020. “It’s activity to drive Republican [turnout] through the roof.”

Waiting for Mr. Youngkin’s accident to activate at the Burke Blaze and Rescue Department, Heather Metz and Anne Taydus call Mr. McAuliffe’s agitation animadversion as a Freudian slip: an acumen into how Democrats absolutely feel about parents.

“It’s like, ‘Terry, are you their father?’” says Ms. Taydus sarcastically. She gestures to Ms. Metz and the added women about her. “He poked astronomic bear. That’s a mistake.”

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