Many forecasters are calling for a actual balmy winter for best of the country consistent from a abstinent or able -ENSO. However, I DO NOT see the La Nina actuality as able as they do.
My apprehension is that like aftermost year, the Pacific Ocean will be in a accompaniment of LA NINA during the winter, apparently a anemic to abstinent one with alone abundantly acknowledgment than accustomed sea apparent temperatures for this additional year “double-dip” La Nina (-ENSO):
A abysm of Alaska 500mb low burden chain is archetypal of La Nina and aback it is adamant it is adamantine to get abundant algid in the East as it lends to a -PNA. We will accept to watch to see if it can be replaced with ridging during the winter or at atomic about-face abundant Southwest of the Aleutian Islands to acquiesce added of a PNA.
For authentic algid air in algidity in the U.S. abundant of Canada aboriginal needs to be snow covered and that Abysm low needs to go away. Contrarily it’s adamantine to get absolute cPK, cA, or cAK air masses (remember your aerial academy cartography class?) to intrude abysmal into the lower 48 states. If the Pacific jet beck is roaring into the U.S. you get milder ImP, mT or mP air masses, chastened by time over abyssal (ocean) territory.
On a civic basis, this winter leans affiliated to aftermost winter but with a bit added chaw to it aback and area it does get algid and snowy, it additionally looks aberrant with capricious jet beck patterns over the December through March period, added so than aftermost winter.
I don’t ahead the La Nina will be as able as abounding added forecasters do so I will acclimatize my angle accordingly.
EL NINO/LA NINA MODELS:
The Pacific Ocean is a huge activity antecedent for the Atmosphere and appropriately the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) condition– La Nina or El Nino– is a aloft disciplinarian for acclimate patterns.
However, neither La Nina nor El Nino can be broad-brushed because no two are every absolutely the same, but we do apperceive what the blended looks like or what about happens. We aloof accept to bethink mother attributes does not affliction about what’s typical. The blended analog access says to apprehend similiar acclimate in the approaching with agnate altitude as in the past. But a KEY POINT is agnate is not = same.
Sure a LA NINA WINTER does favor warmer than accustomed in the Southeast on average. But the SSW contest and behavior of the (AO/NAO) are agrarian cards that can cast the calligraphy if the boundless chill amphitheater ends up anemic during winter, but those are things that can’t be anticipation with accurateness this far in advance.
Last winter for example, was a aboriginal year La Nina but oops, the winter temperatures were adverse the blended beggarly of accomplished La Nina’s in best of the country:
This is why it is important to bethink that accepting an El Nino or a La Nina is NOT THE ONLY disciplinarian of the winter acclimate patterns, the accumulation of the all-around ocean-land-atmosphere-stratosphere affairs and not all of those factors are anticipated months in advance, we can alone accomplish a best estimate.
Long time followers/radio admirers apperceive the capacity about the assorted inputs to all-embracing outlooks because I’ve explained them abounding times over the accomplished decades so I won’t answer them actuality to save time. But acutely aback you’re attractive at this on the web that agency you can attending up any agreement acclimated to apprentice as abundant as you appetite to go added in-depth. I’ve acquaint assorted blogs on the accountable of winter over the accomplished brace months that you can still appearance if you absent them.
FACTORS TYPICALLY USED TO COMPILE THE WINTER OUTLOOK:
Solar Cycle/sunspots, ENSO (LaNina/ElNino), IOD/SOI, Sea-Surface Temperature Anomalies beyond the Arctic Hemisphere, North Pole and Eurasian Sea-Ice and snow coverage/advance in Autumn (SCE/SAI), the attributes of the blow season, Asian-Bering North American teleconnection (ABNA), the attributes of the summer and aboriginal autumn beyond North America, Arctic Annular Mode (NAM), MJO best estimate, QBO trend and estimate, altitude trends, AMO/PDO, Tropical Arctic Hemisphere (TNH), assay studies, statistical assay models and activating anticipation models, NAO/AO/EPO/WPO/PNA/MT-GLAAM estimates, PMM/AMM, SSW event-polar amphitheater estimate, Circumglobal teleconnections (CGT), high-latitude blocking estimates from these inputs (Greenland block), Rossby Wave jet beck storm clue cycles aback spring, ENSO-atmosphere change application ENSO arena 1.2 and MEI/ONI celebrated comparison, Southern Hemisphere South American Summer to North America winter answer pattern, abbreviated change of aboriginal Autumn.
RAW SOLAR CYCLE ANALOGS FOR THIS WINTER:
WEIGHTED SOLAR CYCLE ANALOGS ENSO STRATIFIED FOR THE COMING WINTER:
CLOSEST MATCH SOLAR CYCLE WINTER ANALOGS FOR THIS WINTER:
FAVORED 500MB JET STREAM PATTERN FOR WEAK CENTRAL PACIFIC LA NINA:
This winter the La Nina blazon looks to be a aggregate of Central Pacific and Eastern Pacific, this is the analog admixture for this winter:
RESEARCH BY CPC SHOWS AN EAST QBO FAVORS THIS PATTERN IN A LA NINA:
It (above) shows a Southeast backbone like aftermost winter, but weaker and centered further SE than aftermost year. A agnate arrangement shows up in their assay for an East -QBO in low sunspot periods which is were we band up now.
Eurasian and North American snow awning beforehand in October is monitored as a winter arresting as well. This was the aboriginal beneath accustomed October aback 2011 & everyman amount aback 2005, 2006 & 2012 La Niña & balmy Eastern US winters. BITTER COLD is adamantine to get in the U.S. after abundant snow awning in Canada and added credibility North and West.
These indicators currently are bearish (negative) for a PV chill beforehand this winter:
The SSW contest that accept already occurred are projected by both the GFS and ECMWF Ensembles to answer in the months ahead. Boundless Warming Contest (SSWE) can agitate the chill amphitheater and accommodate an befalling to acquiesce for aberant La Nina weather.
While the allowance do favor milder than boilerplate beggarly temperatures for winter as a accomplished continued out over the absolute season, but that does NOT beggarly there can be no acrid algid spells or that snow/ice is not possible. LA Nina’s are accepted for added animation than El Nino with capricious jet streams as apparent above. I apprehend the beggarly this winter as depicted below:
This winter favors “MILLER B” winter storm beforehand and added civil arctic beforehand with a absolute Pacific and sub-polar jet stream. But a weaker casual sub-tropical jet beck could accommodate a “MILLER A” blazon at atomic a brace times through March.
Other factors beggarly that La Nina’s archetypal climatology can be overridden for a anniversary or added at any time during the winter and aboriginal Spring. We saw that appear aftermost winter aback a SSW/Polar Amphitheater disruption impacted OK/TX with acute algid and ice/snow that came as abutting to us as TN/AL/NC on assorted occasions.
So an all-embracing winter angle can assignment out to be adequately authentic averaging acting and precip over the absolute season, but that can’t annual for blemish cold/snow patterns that may action in the bosom of an contrarily balmy winter. Balmy spells can absolutely be accepted in the Southern bank of states afresh this winter.
This is because there are concise variables that can accept desperate impacts but those capricious cannot be anxiously anticipation added than a brace weeks at a time. The best important of these are the WPO/EPO, AO/NAO, QBO/MJO/IOD which chronicle to the backbone and position of Pacific Jet beck and the backbone or weakness of the Chill Amphitheater and Chill Jet Beck (blocking). All we can do this far in beforehand is to adjudge the anticipation of these actuality agee in one administration or the other, which modes assume to be favored.
As I already declared it doesn’t aloof amount that we accept a La Nina, it will in the end amount what KIND of La Nina we accept for the affection of winter. In added words the change and ultimate backbone and blazon of La Nina will matter, so if it deviates from pre-season expectations the anticipation will be befuddled off and charge to be updated. This is authentic of the added balmy and algid spots in the oceans discussed ahead over the accomplished brace months.
There are affluence of adverse signals as to what to apprehend this winter as a accomplished on average, and alike conflicts on whether the coldest allotment will be the advanced bisected or the aback end. SIGH.
The accomplished tells us that if the end of Autumn and alpha of winter are arctic again the aback of winter will be balmy and carnality versa. That doesn’t appear every year or division but usually it does, forth with the “January Thaw”. 4-9 anniversary cycles are not aberrant afore a flip, we alarm this the “rubber band” abstraction or if you prefer, the alarm swings idea.
THE PAST CAN BE A GUIDE TO THE FUTURE. This is the “analog” forecasting access which does not use models but instead looks at the accomplished to acquisition agnate altitude absolute now or accepted to abide in the advancing season. “The accomplished is a prologue to the future”, Shakespeare acclaimed in his comedy The Tempest. AKA “What’s accomplished is prologue”.
However we charge bethink what the apple of accounts and advance warns us: “PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
————————————————————————————————————————————————————————-
ANALOGS FOR THIS WINTER 2021-22:
COMPOSITE OF THE ANALOG YEARS THAT SHOWED UP MOST OFTEN:
TEMPS:
PRECIP:
Here is the blended for all the agnate analog years after abstract weighting for temperatures and precipitation this winter December-February average:
TEMPS:
PRECIPITATION:
Subjectively abounding analog results:
TEMP:
PRECIP:
STRONGEST ANALOG WINTER 2021-22 TEMPERATURE AVERAGE DECEMBER-FEBRUARY:
STRONGEST ANALOGS WINTER 2021-22 PRECIPITATION AVERAGE DECEMBER-FEBRUARY:
STRONGEST ANALOG WEIGHTED MATCHES WINTER 2021-22 TEMPS/PRECIP:
REMEMBER, all the aloft analog maps appearance the blended beggarly or boilerplate of the absolute 3-month winter period, this does NOT beggarly it will be the case at all times December-March. It represents the boilerplate of the absolute winter division NOT EVERY DAY OR EVERY WEEK.
My booty abroad from the analog access is that a somewhat DRY winter is acceptable (not wet at the actual least), and as far as temperatures are concerned, the LEAST acceptable aftereffect is a colder than accustomed winter. The arresting for below-normal precipitation is stronger than the acting signal.
The La Nina arrangement and all the models say a balmy winter in best of Georgia.
But I will alone adapt that based on the accumulation of the adverse signals from all the factors studied.
I ahead THIS WINTER in the NORTH HALF OF GEORGIA… will be drier than accustomed on boilerplate with temperatures near-normal on average… NOT decidedly warmer or colder than accepted on the accomplished 3-month period. I ahead allowance for snow/ice attending accustomed or average/typical for this winter. I would not be afraid if we are in a aridity by the alpha of Bounce 2022.
Again that does not beggarly every day every anniversary or every ages but this is the accepted beggarly for the December through February period. About the aforementioned November-March.
MOST LIKELY AREAS OF BELOW-NORMAL WINTER TEMP ACCORDING TO ANALOG METHOD:
MOST LIKELY AREAS OF ABOVE-NORMAL AND BELOW-NORMAL WINTER PRECIP ACCORDING TO ANALOG METHOD:
WILD CARD UNICORN BLACK SWAN:
You may accept apprehend about “black swan events”. Additionally accepted as a unicorn or attenuate agrarian agenda result. Actuality is one apropos this winter… in agreement of the ocean temperatures we are currently attractive at a arrangement that is unprecedented:
Hmmmmm:
So conceivably mother attributes will appearance us article new for a anemic to abstinent additional La Nina winter season. God alone knows and alone time will tell.
IF new abstracts in November shows any aloft changes I will do an amend aboriginal in December.
For added affix with me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.
©2021 Cox Media Group
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